2024 was a Landslide…for "Did Not Vote" | Environmental Voter
Project
Quoting from the linked site:
Using data from the University of Florida Election Lab, a new analysis
by the Environmental Voter Project shows that 85.9 million eligible
voters skipped the 2024 general election, far surpassing the 76.8
million ballots cast for Donald Trump or the 74.3 million for Kamala
Harris.
If "Did Not Vote" had been a presidential candidate, they would have
beaten Donald Trump by 9.1 million votes, and they would have won 21
states, earning 265 electoral college votes to Trump's 175 and
Harris's 98.
As in most US elections, the real swing voters in 2024 were those
deciding between voting or not voting…and they overwhelmingly chose
to stay home on Election Day.
So why is that a thing?
Here are the reasons listed on that page for why more than 85 million
[1] people sat out the election.
-
35% say thinking their vote would not make a difference was a major
reason why they did not vote.
-
31% say that not liking politics was a major reason.
-
18% say it was that they are not registered or not eligible to vote.
-
17% say a major reason was that they did not care about the outcome.
-
15% say voting was inconvenient.
-
8% say a major reason was they forgot to vote.
Those numbers don't add up to 100%, obviously, because some people had
multiple major reasons for not voting. I think it would surprise some
people that apathy toward the outcome is close to the bottom on that
list.
The top reasons for not voting were that people feel that their vote
would not make a difference, and that the non-voters disliked politics.
Furthermore, I'd argue both are legitimate problems with the status
quo, and that they should be fixed. I don't know how to fix them.
Disenfranchisement
This is about a feeling and a perception and a de facto thing, because
most of the people who feel the way I describe do have the right to
vote. They feel effectively disenfranchised on account of geography.
I used to live in a deeply Republican state, Oklahoma. I didn't vote in
the first few elections I was eligible for, due to the apathy of youth.
I voted for John Kerry in 2004, though, because I felt that George W.
Bush and his administration were an active threat to democracy in the US
and any chance at global peace. A pretty good summation of my thinking
was: "Who's this motherfucker going to invade next, and what civil
liberties will he go after next?" So I voted for Kerry, and I was proud
of it. Did my vote make a single bit of difference? No. Not even my
down-ballot votes made a difference. All of the candidates I voted on
and the state questions I voted on lost.
Now I live in a Democratic state, though most of that is due to the
people in our larger cities. I voted for Harris in 2024, and I was proud
of that too. Again, my vote for Harris made about as much difference as
my vote for Kerry made in 2004, except that my down-ballot votes did
make a difference. If I'm still alive for the 2026 midterms – a
dubious proposition at best – I'll be voting in those. Down-ballot
races are important. And down-ballot races are the ones in which your
vote has a greater chance of counting. For instance, my congressional
district was predicted to go Republican. It didn't, because it's not a
solid block for either party.
But how do you overcome the disenfranchisement felt by people who live
in districts or states where everyone else tends to vote overwhelmingly
opposite from the way you vote?
Some of this problem is being handled by the "big sort", where people
are moving to areas with like-minded people. It's what I did.
Unfortunately, people will continue to feel disenfranchised by
presidential elections, because they are not decided by national popular
vote, as they should be.
People Don't Like Politics
Though a Short Cycle Hurt Harris this Time
Only because it was artificially short, and only artificially short for
one person. It would have been fair if both candidacies had lasted a few
months.
Too Few Parties Squabbling over Wedge Issues
It would be easier to do things like coalition building if we had more
than two parties here in the US.
I remember Bernie Sanders catching a lot of flak a few years ago for
suggesting that Socialists, Democratic Socialists, or whatever, can and
should build coalitions with people who share some but not all of our
values. In the case in question, he was talking about a candidate who
held strongly economically left views but was anti-abortion. And all the
liberals on reddit were like "Oh nooo." I'm strongly pro-choice. If I
was in Congress, would I be willing to work together with someone who
held this totally opposite cultural view from me, in order to promote
something like Medicare for All? Hell yes I would. We can have the
abortion fight another day, but today, we're fighting together to give
us Medicare for All.
When you've got just two parties, you see the hyper-polarization that
we have in the US right now. People pick one or the other, often on
account of some wedge issue, and they feel like they are forced to
choose a side.
In a sane political system, people would fall all over the place. You'd
have economic left, cultural left, economic center, cultural center,
economic right, and cultural right. And the two centers are kinda big
and squishy. I'd call myself hard-left economically, but definitely in
the squishy middle culturally (though on the left edge).
I don't know much about parliamentary systems, so maybe somebody who
lives under one can help educate me, but if I understand correctly, they
tend to have more than two parties typically more than three, and
different parties tend to act in coalition. I could see this leading to
less of the hyper-partisan-induced gridlock that we have here in the US.
Maybe we need a parliamentary system in the US. I should read more
before shooting off my mouth here. But at the very least, I think having
a strong mix of parties would help with both the feeling of
disenfranchisement and the distaste for politics.
That's not happening without a drastic change or rewrite of the US
Constitution. We'll need a Constitutional Convention for that, and
maybe the only way we'll get it is via a crisis.
[1] I've seen counts of non-voting eligible ranging from 85.9 million
to 92 million. I think it's about 88 million.
[2] Dates taken from Wikipedia.
Posted 25 Jan 2025 19:54 by chris Updated: 25 Jan 2025 19:54
Tagged:
politics